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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|