How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs Washington without results
The frequently changing summit is another development in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was Israel's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a long record of siding with Israel dating back to his first term, encompassing his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the war.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - then to back off in the face of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the possible summit in Hungary.
The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – including land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the war is turning out harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.